Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,029$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(9.65 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 121.7)}}\) (asimptote \(273.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,103$ on 2020-09-16

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,265$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,128.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(35,128.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,039$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(8.01 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,963.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,963.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,326$ on 2020-09-16

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $291,442$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{249,105.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(249,105.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,645$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,797.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(34,797.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,532$ on 2020-09-16

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,630,051$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,795,493.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,795,493.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $196,763$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,644.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 76.3)}}\) (asimptote \(182,644.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,907,715$ on 2020-09-16

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $380,677$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(9.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{316,104.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 60.5)}}\) (asimptote \(316,104.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,773$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,796.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,796.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $336,714$ on 2020-09-16

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,575$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,476.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.8)}}\) (asimptote \(86,476.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,860$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,741.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,741.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,715$ on 2020-09-16

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $266,869$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(114.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,661.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(213,661.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,373$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(128.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,050.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,050.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,873$ on 2020-09-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Singapore recovered 97%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 94%
Iceland recovered 93%
New Zealand recovered 92%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 88%
Egypt recovered 83%
Vietnam recovered 81%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 78%
Azerbaijan recovered 78%
Australia recovered 77%
Afghanistan recovered 76%
Guatemala recovered 73%
Saudi Arabia recovered 73%
Guinea recovered 72%
Nigeria recovered 66%
Korea, South recovered 64%
Japan recovered 57%
Suriname recovered 55%
Namibia recovered 52%
Zimbabwe recovered 51%
Maldives recovered 46%
El Salvador recovered 46%
Bolivia recovered 44%
Poland recovered 40%
Russia recovered 31%
Peru recovered 25%
Croatia recovered 24%
Bangladesh recovered 22%
Belize recovered 20%
Rwanda recovered 14%
Kenya recovered 11%
Panama recovered 4%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,253$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.08 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,051.6}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 15.5)}}\) (asimptote \(85,051.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,736$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,688.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,688.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $362$ on 2020-09-16

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,514$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.98 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,900.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,900.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $532$ on 2020-09-16

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,414$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,114.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 90.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,114.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $267$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 95.4)}}\) (asimptote \(272.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $320$ on 2020-09-16

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,189$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-2.29 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,891.8}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,891.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-09-16

Best fit exponential: \(-6.84 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-09-16